Since 2014, many firms have utilized in California for testing self-driving automobiles. The record of firms which have acquired a allow can be utilized as a measure for the innovation course of related to autonomous automobile expertise. The graph under reveals how the variety of firms energetic in California has solely elevated steadily from 2014 to the third quarter of 2016. A steep enhance follows in 2017. The slope softens within the first half of 2018.
After all it will be untimely to conclude that we’re already seeing the start of the top of the S-curve which is so typical for innovation processes. And the California AV permits can solely be seen as a proxy for the bigger distributed self-driving automobile innovation course of at the moment unfolding the world over.
Lively California AV permits by month (Knowledge from California DMV) Up to date: 2018-11-18 (you would possibly must reload your browser to see the most recent model)
However neither the variety of California AV permits nor the variety of firms offering self-driving automobile options will develop indefinitely. The time will come the place the trade strikes into the subsequent part, the place the exploratory modes of growth can be changed by extra systematic, managerial approaches and the place commercialization would be the major focus. A shakeout is inevitable. Time could also be operating out for individuals who nonetheless need to soar onto the self-driving automotive prepare…
Notes:
– 58 permits have been issued by the top of June 2018; One allow has not been renewed (Uber), making it 57 energetic permits.
Updates:
The graphic is up to date on occasion. It’s possible you’ll must reload your this web page in your browser to view the present model of the graphic.
-2018-11-18: By the top of October 2018, the variety of energetic permits elevated to 60.
– 2018-09-07: By the top of August 2018, Mando America Company acquired a allow, rising the variety of energetic permits to 56.
– 2018-08-07: By the top of July 2018, 2 firms didn’t renew their permits (Wheego Electrical and Bauer’s Clever Transportation) lowering the variety of energetic permits to 55.
