Africa’s Cellular Sector: Nonetheless Room for Progress

Africa’s cell communications market continues to develop at a gradual tempo. And take up reveals no indicators of slowing. 

Subscription numbers have been up 5% in 2021, following development of seven% the yr earlier than and 6% in 2019.

In accordance with figures from our GlobalComms Database, on the finish of 2021 the continent was dwelling to 1.22 billion cell subscriptions, up from 1.16 billion 12 months earlier.

Nigeria is by far the largest single market, with 190.6 million subscriptions on the finish of 2021, adopted by South Africa with 110.9 million and Egypt with 101.3 million.

Scorching Markets

In nation phrases, Africa was dwelling to virtually half of the highest 40 quickest rising cell markets worldwide in 2021. A few of the strongest performers included Niger, the place cell subscription numbers rose 23% to 14.2 million, Ethiopia (up 20% to 58.7 million), Malawi (up 19% to 11.3 million), and Mozambique (up 16% to 17.3 million).

Double Digit Will increase
Africa’s 15 Quickest Rising Cellular Markets in 2021

Supply: TeleGeography’s GlobalComms Database

The West African nation of Niger presents good prospects for future development, with solely round 56% of the inhabitants subscribing to a mobile service at end-2021, properly under the regional common.

Demand for cell voice and information is now booming, having beforehand been restricted by an absence of competitors, excessive costs, and low community protection. France’s Orange Group cited the nation’s “unfavorable market atmosphere” as the rationale behind its exit in November 2019.

It’s now served by 4 gamers: Airtel, Zamani Telecom (previously Orange Niger), Moov, and Niger Telecoms. Airtel controls over 47% of all subscriptions.

In the meantime, Ethiopia’s cell sector has exhibited robust development, regardless of nonetheless being one of many world’s few remaining monopolies on the finish of 2021, with state-owned Ethio Telecom the one participant. Safaricom is trying to break into the market, nevertheless, with a launch imminent as of August 2022. The brand new operator is hoping to be overlaying 25 cities by April 2023.

The Malawi cell market has remained a duopoly since Airtel Malawi began operations as Celtel in October 1999, when it joined Telekom Networks Malawi, which had launched 4 years earlier.

Since 2002 the Malawi Communications Regulatory Authority has sought to introduce new competitors to the sector, however not one of the licensed corporations proceeded with a business launch.

In Mozambique, Vodacom is the dominant participant, with virtually 52% of all subscriptions on the finish of 2021, adopted by Movitel with 29% and TMCEL with simply over 19%.

Future Enlargement

There’s nonetheless extra room for development regionally, with inhabitants penetration of cell companies in Africa standing at 89% at end-2021, growing from 87% 12 months earlier. To place this in a worldwide context, that was greater than 15 proportion factors behind areas reminiscent of Asia, the Center East, and Latin America.

Wanting forward, cell subscriptions in Africa are set to rise to 1.61 billion by the tip of 2028, a compound annual development fee of 4% for 2021-2028.

Wanting forward, cell subscriptions in Africa are set to rise to 1.61 billion by the tip of 2028, a compound annual development fee of 4% for 2021-2028.

One nation set to drive the longer term take up is Democratic Republic of Congo, the place inhabitants penetration was round 45% on the finish of 2021, roughly half the regional common.

The Congolese market has huge untapped potential for future development, however improvement stays hindered by lots of the challenges dealing with related sub-Saharan states, reminiscent of poor transport/vitality infrastructure, widespread poverty, restricted entry to funding, weak establishments and corruption. These limitations are exacerbated by the DRC’s measurement, difficult terrain and dispersed and numerous inhabitants.

Know-how Cut up

4G subscriptions will quickly surpass each 2G and 3G as the most well-liked platform in Africa. By the tip of 2023 4G is predicted to be being utilized by virtually 470 million individuals on the continent, simply forward of 3G.

4G and 5G Progress
Africa Cellular Subscriptions by Know-how, 2011–2028

Supply: TeleGeography’s GlobalComms Database

As 3G utilization goes into decline, 4G will proceed to develop in recognition, with a predicted 730 million 4G subscriptions by end-2028.

5G companies have already been launched in various African markets, in nations reminiscent of South Africa, Botswana, Togo, and Zimbabwe, plus island nations together with Reunion and Seychelles.

In Could 2022 the Nigerian Communications Fee confirmed that the winners of final December’s 3.5GHz spectrum public sale, MTN Nigeria and Mafab Communications, had every been formally issued with their spectrum licenses. Community rollouts at the moment are underway.

5G networks are forecast to be serving virtually 350 million subscriptions in Africa by the tip of 2028.